Read this article from the Economist, and decide whether we are: a. in a recession , b. heading for a recession, or c. doing just ducky, thank you. It reminds me of why Harry Truman wanted a one-armed economist: "on the one hand..."
This article on the minimum wage is also worth a look, especially now that it will probably become a reality with the power shift in Washington.
13 comments:
From what this article shows, it seems that most of the evidence is pointing towards a recession. Although unemployment fell, so did residential, car, industrial, and housing-related production. Consumers spent much less than most companies predicted they would, and even our friend Wal-Mart didn't do so hot. The economy in the Hamptons didn't seem so booming this summer either; I didn't see as many people out in town spending money as I have in the past summers. Hopefully it was just a summer slump that the holidays will help our economy get out of.
I would have to agree with Devin in that it looks like we're headed for recession, or possibly already in the beginnings of one. The fact that productivity is slowing so much is a hint at a suffering economy, even if unemployment fell (which, an article a few down on this blog says could be from people dropping out of the workforce, not from actual job creation)..
The article seems to show that we are headed for a recession. Production in construction, car and housing companies has fallen, and business was even slower this summer than it had been in previous summers. However, oil prices are down and residential investment is above average. The holidays should give the economy a boost that will help get it out of this slump it seems to be in.
As the article indicated it seems that our economy might be heading for a recession. The consumption of our population has been below the normal. If we were to raise the minimum wage it would be helpful to the economy. However, as the article stated, minimum wage jobs are usually taken by people who aren't in desperate need for income. Teenagers are often collecting minimum wage, but have parents who are responsible for the bills. Raising the minimum wage is a good tool to help the economy since it doesn’t take money to enforce.
i agree with all that the article implies that we are going to a recession. but i disagree about the hampton going into a recession. my fathers buisness, building roofs, did anything but fall, his work go busier. town was also as crowded as i have ever seen it and i live a mile away from town.
According to the article's information, it is evident that we may be headed toward a slight recession. However, if mainly residential construction and car production are slowing down, why is our economy expected to fall behind? The automobile industry is converting to a foreign sector anyway so I would think we would expect to see a slow down in that area. Also, if the unemployment rate slightly rises, wouldn't we see a bit of deflation, causing the worth of the dollar to go up?
According to the article, which shows the decline in many areas, it seems that if things keep going the way they are in the economy we could be heading for a recession. However a lot of things can change in a short period of time. Like Erica said we are heading into the holiday season and black friday is right around the corner meaning demand will rise causing people to consume more which will be beneficial to the economy. Atleast in the short run. After the holiday season the economy could go back to its slumping ways likely causing a recession.
according to this article, it seems that we are heading towards a recession. as devin said, i also noticed town this summer not as busy and usual, and within the last few summers it has been a steady decrease in people, and people's spending. i also agree the people are probably using their 3% wage increase as savings instead of spendings because of the decrease in the house market. The holidays comming up should give the economy a definate boost, but how much i'm not sure.
i also believe taht as a whole, america is going into a recession, but in the Hamptons we are not. just as classens' father's business, my fathers business is very busy.
i would have to say that we are heading for a recession in the america because everything is growing so fast and productivity is moving so quickly that it will be very hard to keep up this pace. In the article it said that the jobless rate fell to 4.4% in october which is really good but one has to believe that that number will increase within the coming months because it will be hard to maintain that level for an extended period of time. cyclical unemployment will most likely rare its ugly head if america does go into recession.
i agree with the belief that we could be heading towards a recession. Hopefully the labor market will stay tight, and if the jobs stay plentiful and the wages rise, then consumer spending is unlikely to collapse. Like the article says, christmas is our last home for a demand growth, so make sure everyones asks for alot of presents!
According to this article, if America keeps following the same track we are headed towards a recession, but are we? I found that there was a major difference in sales this summer. Working in a clothing store, it was very strange to see that on a beautiful day in augest people just weren't in the mood to shop.And It was also very interesting to me when stated in the article that the household saving rate, although still negative, rose from –0.8% in July to –0.2% in September. The economy is one big cycle, sure it's great to save money, but the more money people save, the less they are spending, and more jobs are lost.
A downturn in consumer spending may be troublesome for the economy, but is it worth worrying about this much? Possible since companies are reducing production due to large inventories, which in the past has been a sign of future economic trouble. But on the other hand the downturn in spending could just be a lagging reaction to this summers spike in petrol prices that shocked the economy. In addition a cutback in spending is good if it comes with an improvement in the savings rate. Also with the holidays coming up people will most likely help spend the economy back onto its feet again.
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